2024-03-072024-03-072023-01-26SILVA, Kassya Eloandra Fortes. Proposta de modelo de previsão baseado em séries temporais visando otimizar a política de reposição de estoque por ponto de pedido: um estudo de caso em uma indústria de embalagens plásticas situada no município de Ananindeua-PA. 2023. Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso (Bacharelado em Engenharia de Produção) – Universidade do Estado do Pará, Belém, 2023.https://bibliotecadigitaldetcc.uepa.br/handle/riuepa/457With price instability in the plastics production chain, industries are constantly looking for better management practices to improve their overall result, especially with regard to their costs and expenses with inventories. The adoption of replenishment policies helps these companies to better manage and control their inventory levels. For its proper functioning, it is necessary to define which indicators will be used by the organization, to understand the correct moment and the necessary volume of new orders for resupply of materials. This study proposes a forecast model based on time series to optimize the stock replenishment policy by order point with the aid of the economic replenishment lot. To do so, it uses actual demand data from the organization for the last two years. When applied to a case study in a plastic manufacturing industry, the proposed method determined the initial replacement policies that the company should adopt to optimize its costs, with the calculation of safety stock, order point and economic purchase lot.Língua PortuguesaAbertoForecasting modelInventory policyOrder pointTrabalho de Conclusão de Curso (TCC)